Two Numbers That Guarantee Your CFD Trading Success
Understanding the relationship between two important ratios is the key to building a winning CFD trading strategy. The two key ratios are the risk reward ratio and the hit rate.
Risk reward is calculated by dividing the average win by the average loss. The hit rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total trades. So the hit rate is how often you are right and the risk reward is how much you win when you are right relative to how much you lose when you are wrong.
Is Trading CFDs Like Winning Lotto?
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
The risk is very low, lets say $10 for a ticket, while the reward is potentially huge, with first prize being many millions of dollars, say $10 million. The risk reward ratio of this investment is exceptional at 1 million to 1. There are very few investments that deliver this kind of risk reward.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Rugby Versus CFDs
The Crusaders have consistently won the Super 14 rugby competition in NZ managing to secure 7 wins over the last ten years.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
Calculating the probability of a team winning a game is not an easy task, but assuming the odds were 95%, then the gambler would win 19 times $8,000 and lose $100,000 just once. It could be that our gambler had a profitable strategy despite the lousy risk reward.
To trade CFDs successfully it is vitally important to have a strategy that overall you expect to win because the combination of risk reward and hit rate are in your favour. - 23159
Risk reward is calculated by dividing the average win by the average loss. The hit rate is the number of winning trades divided by the total trades. So the hit rate is how often you are right and the risk reward is how much you win when you are right relative to how much you lose when you are wrong.
Is Trading CFDs Like Winning Lotto?
Do you really believe that lotto is the way to make money? The behaviour of millions of people would suggest that it is.
The risk is very low, lets say $10 for a ticket, while the reward is potentially huge, with first prize being many millions of dollars, say $10 million. The risk reward ratio of this investment is exceptional at 1 million to 1. There are very few investments that deliver this kind of risk reward.
However if it was that easy we would have all won lotto. This is not the case and while the risk reward is exceptional, the hit rate is lousy. Assuming that the lotto draw requires 6 balls out of 40 to win then the chance of buying the winning ticket are 3,838,380:1.
If you bought 3,838,380 tickets on average one ticket would win and the rest (3,838,379) would lose. This means on average you would have to spend $38,383,790 to win $10 million. Overall playing Lotto would cost you $28,383,790.
Winning Lotto is more about luck than probability as you may win before you buy you 3,838,380 ticket. But when it comes to building a profitable trading strategy it is not about luck it is about taking advantage of an opportunity that has a profitable edge.
Rugby Versus CFDs
The Crusaders have consistently won the Super 14 rugby competition in NZ managing to secure 7 wins over the last ten years.
A large bet of $100,000 was made that the Crusaders would win a particular game. The payoff if the Crusaders won was $108,000 so the gambler would receive a profit of just $8,000. With a downside of $100,000 the risk reward is very poor at 8:100 or 0.08.
However when you consider the odds of a Crusaders win they were very high. If the probability is high enough, more than 90%, then this could actually be a profitable strategy.
Calculating the probability of a team winning a game is not an easy task, but assuming the odds were 95%, then the gambler would win 19 times $8,000 and lose $100,000 just once. It could be that our gambler had a profitable strategy despite the lousy risk reward.
To trade CFDs successfully it is vitally important to have a strategy that overall you expect to win because the combination of risk reward and hit rate are in your favour. - 23159
About the Author:
Jeff Cartridge is a private trader and author that lives in New Zealand and created the website LearnCFDs.com Find the Best CFD Trading Books
posted by X - Men @ 2:45 AM
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