Logic In Investment Strategies
I've been trading stocks and forex all my life. One thing I gradually became aware of during this experience was that the strategies which make the most logical sense typically are the ones which work the best.
There are so many investment strategies I get offered I could probably spend 2 life times working through them all. And a small fortune working out which ones don't work. What I have found though is you can short cut this process simply by looking logically at them. Quite often when you robustly go through the logic of an investment strategy you will find holes in it. And big holes too, holes that will make you lose your money.
Most strategies presented to you will make sense. They have to or you would disregard them as nonsense. This is not what I am talking about though. The concern discussed in this article is logical completeness. If a strategy does not cover all possible scenarios you may come across, it will not take long before you find one of those scenarios. And when you do find a scenario which is not covered by your strategy, all of a sudden you need to make decisions outside the strategy. You will probably be left scratching your head or guessing.
Personally I think that making decisions like this, decisions which are outside the logic of an investment or trading strategy, is gambling. Its not a good situation. Sure you may make money with this gamble, but you could lose it too. Its no different than blackjack. A robust and complete trading strategy should take these gambles away from you. There should be no guesses. You should just plan the trade and then trade the plan.
Also, the point about trialing a strategy is that you are finding out whether it will make consistent returns over the fullness of time. The point about trading a strategy is that you know it makes consistent returns over the fullness of time. If you have had a guess mid way through the strategy, you cannot be confident its the strategy or your guess which is making the money. You will need to start again.
So if someone presents you a trading strategy, go through the logic with a fine tooth comb. See if you can come up with scenarios which may happen in real life, which the strategy deos not cover. If you can think of some, try to get answers for these scenarios before you start trading with real money. Because believe me, if such scenarios exist, as soon as you put money down they will come up. I think 2007 - 2009 taught us all that.
And once you have covered off every situation you can think of, always remember to execute a preliminary trading exercise without putting money down. Spend a few months running the strategy in spreadsheets before you trade with money. You'll be amazed at the real life situations which come your way which you'd never have dreamed of. And you will thank your stars you resolved these issues when you had nothing on the line. - 23159
There are so many investment strategies I get offered I could probably spend 2 life times working through them all. And a small fortune working out which ones don't work. What I have found though is you can short cut this process simply by looking logically at them. Quite often when you robustly go through the logic of an investment strategy you will find holes in it. And big holes too, holes that will make you lose your money.
Most strategies presented to you will make sense. They have to or you would disregard them as nonsense. This is not what I am talking about though. The concern discussed in this article is logical completeness. If a strategy does not cover all possible scenarios you may come across, it will not take long before you find one of those scenarios. And when you do find a scenario which is not covered by your strategy, all of a sudden you need to make decisions outside the strategy. You will probably be left scratching your head or guessing.
Personally I think that making decisions like this, decisions which are outside the logic of an investment or trading strategy, is gambling. Its not a good situation. Sure you may make money with this gamble, but you could lose it too. Its no different than blackjack. A robust and complete trading strategy should take these gambles away from you. There should be no guesses. You should just plan the trade and then trade the plan.
Also, the point about trialing a strategy is that you are finding out whether it will make consistent returns over the fullness of time. The point about trading a strategy is that you know it makes consistent returns over the fullness of time. If you have had a guess mid way through the strategy, you cannot be confident its the strategy or your guess which is making the money. You will need to start again.
So if someone presents you a trading strategy, go through the logic with a fine tooth comb. See if you can come up with scenarios which may happen in real life, which the strategy deos not cover. If you can think of some, try to get answers for these scenarios before you start trading with real money. Because believe me, if such scenarios exist, as soon as you put money down they will come up. I think 2007 - 2009 taught us all that.
And once you have covered off every situation you can think of, always remember to execute a preliminary trading exercise without putting money down. Spend a few months running the strategy in spreadsheets before you trade with money. You'll be amazed at the real life situations which come your way which you'd never have dreamed of. And you will thank your stars you resolved these issues when you had nothing on the line. - 23159
About the Author:
After many years of successful investing, Gnifrus Urquart enjoys discussing his favorite investment strategies and offering general investment advice
posted by X - Men @ 5:13 AM
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