What Impacts the Price of a Stock? How Useful is Historical Data?

By Marv Doniger

There are a myriad of factors that are commonly used by investors to evaluate potential stock investments. These investment opportunities are often identified through the use of the numerous stock screeners that are readily available to investors. Common searches seek to identify companies that have a low Price Earnings, Price to Book Value, or Price to Cash Flow Ratio; high Dividend Yields; high Returns on Assets, Invested Capital, or Earnings; low Debt to Equity; and high Cash balances. In fact there are pre-defined stock screeners such as the Contrarian Strategy, Dogs of the Dow, Momentum Stocks, New 52-Week Highs, etc. that can be used to identify stocks in which to invest. The implicit assumption in using stock screeners is that there is a relationship between this data and the future performance of a stock. Should this assumption be valid then all one would have to do is run his/her magic screener and buy those stocks with his/her favorite criteria such as low Price Earnings Ratio and high Dividend Yield. In order to validate the premise that the data obtained from stock screeners influences the price of a company's stock, the change in the price of the Dow 30 Industrial stocks from 1999 to 2009 was compared to changes in the Returns they generated, their Financial Condition and Performance over that same time period. Returns included Returns on Equity, Invested Capital and Assets as well as Dividends paid to investors. Financial Condition included Current Ratio, Debt to Equity Ratio, along with Interest Coverage and Dividend Coverage. Performance included Sales, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow trends. A correlation analysis was conducted to determine the relationship of the price of each of the companies comprising the Dow Industrials and these factors. The hypothesis being that there was a statistically valid relationship between these factors.

As the following chart shows, dividends had a statistically significant impact on the change in the price of the stock of Exxon Mobil, Hewlett-Packard, Merck, and Verizon. It had a moderate impact on the price of the stock of Alcoa, Bank of America, DuPont, General Electric and JP Morgan Chase. Earnings had a strong impact on the price of Citigroup's and Exxon Mobil's stock. The stock price of Caterpillar, Chevron, Johnson & Johnson, McDonalds, Proctor & Gamble, and United Technologies was moderately impacted by earnings. Price changes in the stock of Exxon Mobil were statistically significantly impacted by its Dividends, Cash, Earnings, Book Value and Cash Flow and moderately impacted by its Return on Invested Capital, Dividend Coverage and Sales. Another company whose price movement could be partially explained by change in these factors is Caterpillar. There were moderately statistically significant relationships between its price and its Returns on Equity, Investment and Assets; its Interest and Dividend Coverage; as well as its Earnings and Cash Flow. Perhaps one of the most astonishing results is that there were no statistically meaningful relationships between the changes in the price of the stocks of 3M, American Express, AT&T, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Kraft, Microsoft, Pfizer, Coca-Cola, Home Depot, and Wal-Mart and the measures of Returns, Financial Condition, and Performance used in the analysis. To put it another way, the price movement of 40 percent of the Dow Industrials bore no statistically meaningful relationship to changes in these factors.

FACTORS AFFECTING STOCK PRICE of DOW 30 INDUSTRIALS RETURNS FINANCIAL CONDITION PERFORMANCE Dow 30 Components Company Equity Invested Capital Assets Dividends Current Ratio Debt to Equity Interest Coverage Dividend Coverage Cash Sales Earnings Book Value Cash Flow 3m Co Alcoa Inc ● American Express Company, AT&T Inc. Bank of America Corporation ● Boeing Co., Caterpillar Inc. ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Chevron Corp ●● ● ● ●● ● Citigroup, Inc. ●● ● E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co ● Exxon Mobil Corp ● ●● ● ●● ● ●● ●● ●● General Electric Company ● General Motors Corporation ● Hewlett-Packard Co. ●● ● Intel Corporation International Business Machines Johnson & Johnson ● ● ● JP Morgan & Chase & Co ● Kraft Foods Inc. McDonald's Corporation ● ● Merck & Co., Inc. ●● Microsoft Corporation, Pfizer Inc, The Coca-Cola Company, The Home Depot, Inc. The Procter & Gamble Company ● ● ● ●● United Technologies Corporation ● ● ● Verizon Communications ●● Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Impact ● Moderate ●● Significant Data Standard & Poor's

Based on the previous examination of the relationships between the price of the Dow Industrials stocks and certain measurements of their historical data, it should be apparent that stock screeners, in and of themselves, are not sufficient tools to use in selecting potential stock investments. Even if there were statistically significant relationships between the historical price movement and the data used in the stock screener, it does not mean that those relationships would continue in the future. Wall Street constantly warns that past performance is not indicative of future results, yet investors search the past to divine the future. It is like driving in traffic by looking through the rear view mirror and missing the collision ahead that is about to happen. As events of the past eighteen months have proven, highly improbable events can occur and inflict unforeseen casualties on investors. Since equity markets are supposedly discounting future events, investors should look through the windshield to see what is ahead of them and use the rear view mirror to see if the vehicle behind them has any relevance to their ultimate destination.

Marvin Doniger, Managing Partner of Doniger & Associates, is the author of A Common Sense Road Map to Uncommon Wealth, which is a treatise on managing careers and finances. His perspectives have been developed from his lifelong study of investing, his actual experiences as a registered representative, an individual investor, as well as from working for large companies in industry and as a management consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is a leader in his industry. - 23159

About the Author:

Mr. Doniger received a Masters in Business Administration from Columbia University Graduate School of Business and a Bachelor of Science Degree in Mechanical Engineering from Tufts University. He has taught undergraduate and graduate level courses in production control, inventory management, information technology and finance at Fitchburg State College and Webster University. CONTACT INFORMATION: Tel: 949-661-5456 Email: Marv@DonigerAssociates.com www.donigerassociates.com

Finding the Best Value For Your Property Investment

By Lindamare Gomez

If you are trying to sell your home, you might have a difficult time getting a great price for it unless it is in tip-top condition. Buyers these days want the home they purchase to be picture perfect and ready for occupancy immediately. Unless you have painted the entire home inside and out, replaced aging electrical appliances, and footed the bill for a new roof, you may not get your asking price.

It can be difficult to get potential buyers to see what a gem your home is unless it looks absolutely perfect. They cant see and dont care how great the living room would look with a different colored carpet. They arent interested in how much safer the yard would be for their kids if it was surrounded by a chain-link fence. They are bringing their hard-earned money to the table and expect to get something thats already suited to their wants and needs.

Before putting your home on the market, you must correct every flaw if you expect to get top dollar for it. Paint the inside and outside, replace the roof if its worn, re-carpet where necessary, and enhance every little detail. Look at your home through a potential buyers eyes to determine what things they would like to see in place. You should expect to spend some money getting your home in order before you sell it.

Some people just dont have the time or money required to prepare their houses for the real estate market. They may be forced to move unexpectedly due to a job transfer or they may be in financial trouble, which pretty much prevents them from investing any more money into their homes.

If you are in any of the above circumstances, then you need to consider selling your home to a private real estate investor or real estate investment firm. If you can get one of them interested in purchasing your home, you will be able to move right away without having to make any further mortgage payments. Of course, you might not get top dollar for it but you wont get it anyway unless you are willing to pay the price ahead of time by repainting, re-carpeting, re-roofing, and fixing anything that needs repair.

Real estate investors can see beyond the normal wear and tear your home has undergone. They will not expect you to sink thousands of dollars into the home so that it will look perfect. They will buy your home the way it is and do all the work before putting it out there on the real estate market.

Selling to a real estate investor will be your best option if you need to sell your home as quickly as possible. He or she will buy it outright and you will not have to make any special arrangements, make any more payments, correct any of the problems it has, or pay anyone a commission. All you must do is find an interested investor and your - 23159

About the Author:

If you are planning to invest in the real estate market, you will need to hire a good construction lawyer, and a tax lawyers to help you in the process.

Understanding Call Options The Easy Way

By Maclin Vestor

In late 2008, after the market tanked, losing at one point over 500 points in a day, this was for many, a wake up call to them. They realized that perhaps owning stocks for the long run was not entirely safe, and required some more financial education.

While it's true that in the long run stocks may have returned 10%, at any given moment they could come down. Do you really want to risk that we go through a depression or hyperinflation causing you to lose value just before your retirement? Puts and calls are a way to either do less with more, or protect against the things you want less of to happen more. Of course, unfortunately many people use them to speculate trying to do more with the same amount of money at risk, which can potentially lead to much greater losses. An option contact is the right to execute a certain trade at a given price. A call option is the right to buy, where as a put option is the right to sell. Now if you could buy a stock at $100, you could either pay for 100 shares for $10000. Or you might be able to buy an option contract for the right to buy 100 shares, at a set price. You don't pay for the shares themselves unless you decide to.

An analogy I like to use is a reservation to buy an item that isn't even out yet. Say people wanted to buy the PlayStation 4 immediately after the release date was out. Now let's say people expect it will cost $1000. You on the other hand have looked at everything that they say the PlayStation 4 will contain, and you believe it will actually be worth $2000 when it debuts. You believe the supply will be short, demand large in the future. A store learns that it in fact would retail at $1000 if sold today. So you might put down $100 now to reserve that PlayStation 4 at $1000. You only have 30 days after its release date to execute this "option" otherwise it expires worthless and you lose your 100 shares. Now lets say it's a huge debut, and everyone wants it, you could pick up your copy and own the PlayStation and decide when you want to sell it. Or, you could let someone else do that work, and say online it's going for $2,000. So you could sell the rights to your contract for maybe $900, and now your $100 contract is worth $900. The thing about options is if you are right, the rewards are much greater in percentage points. You could buy the PlayStation at $1000 when everyone else is paying $2000 this contract is worth $1000. Although you would have gained $1000 if you bought the PS4 at $1000 rather than get a contract to reserve it at that price, by only paying $100 you risk a lot less. If you were to buy 10 contracts the maximum potential risk is still 100%, but the reward would be 10 times as great. Unfortunately while the potential risk is the same, in reality, the risk is greater because the liklihood of a large loss occurs more often.

Options work the same way as the example, only rather than the right to buy a single item; it is the right to purchase shares, usually 100 shares per 1 contract. So instead of paying $100 for the right to buy a $1000 item, you instead might pay $100 to purchase $1000 worth of stock or 100 shares at $10.

There are of course some major downfalls. If the stock goes below $1000, who in their right mind would want to buy the contract? Well actually, anyone who believed the price would go up significantly. So if the contract never expired, someone would pay a lot more. If the contract expired the next day, the contract would be worth a lot less as it would be a much greater gamble.

Another fallback is it is not quite the same as putting $100 as people do at retailers traditionally, because in that case, the $100 is generally refundable or discounted towards your purchase, where in the case of options they are not. So it's possible that the value of the underlying stock goes up, but your contract still isn't worth anything. If in the example, you were only able to sell it for $1099 or less, you would still lose out. Say that instead of paying $100, reserving a $1000 item at $1000 price, you decided you would rather pay $65 to reserve that stock at $1200 price. Although the stock is not currently worth that much, if it does go to 2000, it's worth $800 over a 1200% increase. However if it only goes to $1200, you're out the $56, rather than gaining $200. In addition, even if you did reserve it at $1000, if the price of the item is not worth at least $1100 you have lost, and in addition, you could have used that $100 elsewhere during that time.

The options market is derived from the stock market, and may require a different trading system. While every option you have is based on the underlying price of the stock, index, or commodity, that doesn't mean the risk is the same. There is a greater risk of the stock doing nothing as the option still maintains some of it's value. The more time it has, the more potential it has to achieve a gain, and thus the more it's worth. In general buying options is a way of having leveraged control over the stock's price movements without needing to own them directly. Buying a put option is betting the stock will go down, where as buying a call option is betting the stock will go up.

On the other hand, selling a put or call option is collecting cash with the promise to pay the call owner 100 shares of the stock, and the put owner you will be forced to buy 10 shares at the designated price. For example, if you sold a call for $100 with the designated price of 100 shares at $10 or $1000, and the stock went up to $15 or $1500 worth, it would cosst you $500. If you owned the shares of stock you could instead just sell the shares and miss out on the gain that you would have otherwise had. If you sell puts for $1000 for 100 shares at the designated price of $10 per share and the stock was at $10 and went to $5, you would have to buy 100 shares at $10 even though it's only worth $5 each, or just take a $500 loss. Buying stocks and options both can be risky, and it is important to consult with experts and to understand the rules and regulations as well before investing, or before trading stocks or options. - 23159

About the Author:

Maclin Vestor teaches about varioustrading systems. You can even learn about gold trading systems, and buying Krugerrand at his blog.

Learn Forex Trading For Profits

By John Roberts

When you want to be involved in your investments learn forex and enjoy the liquidity, the currency pairs, the low spread and more. This global market offers fast growth when you understand the processes.

There are very little daily adjustments, fewer than 2%. Your positions will take on the rest of the process. When you adjust the leverage do so in small amounts. The rates on buying and selling are low and there are not commissions.

The forex is driven by the investors in the market. Large banks, industries, and corporations cause movement in the rates. Learn to analyze currencies and when exchanges take place you will know the indicators and can predict the currencies movement.

Learning the movements teaches you the conditions and in return is relevant to your purpose in the foreign exchange. Predicting factors will be the knowledge that makes you successful.

All these factors are proven methods of success in forex trading. Learn to recognize and predict capital flow, interest rates, deficits and economic growth. Learning to make more in profits comes to you with these methods.

This can be a daily workload and needs close attention. There are alert devices and choices of software to help you keep in touch. Keep up with news and statistics anything that may warn you of changes in the market.

Focus on 2 or 3 indicators at one time. They are technical indictors that are used to help you make decisions. At this point you are close to learning enough to get in on the bigger profits. Starting with small investments is important to learning.

Trading currencies, gold, and silver is the forex or foreign exchange where you do not buy stocks. Understand how to use leverage or you will lose your money. Learn Forex by yourself or get help with a registered broker who will guide you through your "baby steps". - 23159

About the Author:

Learn forex trading with the best ebooks and software systems available. Find out what others are saying about them at CritiqueDirect.com

Stock Market Investing Guide

By Riz Goodman

Share market is a great way to make money though not a lot of people have been able to play the game properly. The basic problem is that most folks never have the game played correctly and they will always never understand the working of the stock market and jump right away.

There a few places from where you can actually get the real knowledge about the stock basics as well as the stock market terminology. If you are looking at online place then the best place to start are the stock exchanges site of NYSE, NASDAQ and FTSE. These have ample of terms and terminology apart from the fact that they have a nice introduction to the way the market works.

Stock market games and financial magazines is another way to provide you with decent amount of insight into the working of the financial industry including stock market.

Futures and options should not be traded initially. Get your hands dirty with stocks initially. These are very high risk products and chances are that you will burn your cash in little time. That is why it is better to wait and watch and learn the game.

After a few weeks of understanding the next best thing is to open up an account with an online share broker and use that account to buy a first few stocks. Never buy high number of shares but small amounts to begin with.

Stock Market is a risk place so you should be well prepared. In that preparation make sure that you have the risk taking ability. The stock market is not for the faint heart - 23159

About the Author:

Learn the stock market basics before you start stock market investing.